Is Sydney FM Breakfast radio losing listeners to competitors – or losing them altogether?

This week ARN somehow managed to simultaneously deliver both clarity and confusion on the future of KIIS Sydney Breakfast, when it confirmed Kris Fade was not part of its plans for 2027.

Fade himself then revealed that, whilst he had been offered the opportunity to join the network, he’d turned it down.

Instead, he reportedly signed on for another year with Virgin Radio Dubai.

This prompted a flood of comments to the Radio Today inbox, including one from Paul who suggested that signing a one-year contract hardly constitutes a commitment:

“Sounds like Kris from Dubai will be doing KIIS breakfast in 2028.”

The big question now is: What does ARN do in the meantime?

Universal NSW Manager and AFTRS graduate Scott Thomson – who has worked across the broadcast, print and digital media industries – raises concerns about the current holding pattern of rotating co-hosts on KIIS Breakfast.

On LinkedIn, Thomson said:

“ARN executives have spoken about taking their time and launching a new KIIS Breakfast show next year. But that’s the real risk. Once listeners break the habit of waking up with radio, they don’t simply sit around waiting for a better Breakfast show to arrive. They find alternatives. Podcasts. Spotify. YouTube. Their own playlists.”

Thomson says the latest Sydney radio ratings revealed a troubling truth: that radio’s biggest problem isn’t losing listeners to competitors. It’s losing them altogether.

He says KIIS Breakfast shedding 3.5 share points in the wake of Kyle & Jackie O’s departure was hardly surprising. Replacing a long-established Breakfast show was never going to be a walk in the park.

The worrying part, he says, is that those listeners didn’t appear to go anywhere else.

“They didn’t flock to Nova. They didn’t migrate to Gold. They didn’t suddenly discover 2DayFM. Many of them seem to have simply left radio altogether.”

Thomson says some broadcasters will point to share increases as evidence of success, when they actually lose listeners.

It’s like securing a bigger slice of a smaller pie.

“Gold’s Christian O’Connell enjoyed an increase in share and a modest rise in cumulative audience. Yet the show still sits around two share points behind where Jonesy & Amanda were this time last year – and they achieved those numbers in a far more competitive market.”

“Then there’s 2DayFM, which arguably had the biggest opportunity in years to capitalise on disruption in the market. Instead, it went backwards.”

“The real story from these ratings isn’t who won and who lost,” says Thomson. “It’s that radio itself lost.”

Thomson says that for years, Breakfast radio has been the engine room of the industry. When audiences disengage from Breakfast and don’t resurface elsewhere on the dial, the challenge becomes far greater than simply finding a better show.

“The longer radio waits, the harder and more expensive it becomes to bring those listeners back.”

“The industry shouldn’t be celebrating marginal share gains while the total audience shrinks.”

“A bigger slice of a smaller market isn’t growth. It’s a warning sign.”