On the frontline: How will the Melbourne Radio Wars pan out in Survey 1?

So here we are again. GfK Survey 1 of 2025 is due to land this Thursday morning, and the battle lines are drawn for another round of the Melbourne FM Breakfast radio wars.

You’ll recall that in the final survey of last year, Nova 100’s Jase & Lauren extended their lead as the city’s #1 FM Breakfast show, and currently hold an 11.5 share.

KIIS FM’s Kyle & Jackie O, on the other hand, fell to 5.0, leaving them sixth among the FM stations and – to put things in perspective – only marginally ahead of AM sports station SEN 1116.

How will it all pan out this week?

Former SCA content boss Craig Bruce can’t see any reason why the Nova brekky team of Jase Hawkins, Lauren Phillips and Clint Stanaway can’t at least hold the number they currently have.

“I don’t think a lot’s going to change,” says Bruce on the latest episode of the Game Changers Radio: Melbourne Radio Wars podcast.

And whilst K and J might have toned down the smut this year, Bruce doesn’t think there’s been enough time between surveys for the duo to have had any real impact with any significant content changes they’ve made.

Bruce also doesn’t think the show’s marketing has been strong enough.

“And there’s a really strongly held view in Melbourne about that brand,” he says. “If there are any changes based on a better-sounding show, it’s going to take a long, long time for those to come through.”

“So I think it’s going to be pretty consistent with what we’ve seen at the end of last year. A really strong result for Nova. Maybe Gold and Fox swapping rankings, possibly, and Kyle and Jack being a long way back.”

But content and music strategist Irene Hulme believes Kyle and Jackie O will see an improvement this week.

“I’m going to call it and say K and J will move up a spot,” says Hulme.

“I don’t know whether I’ve got an unrealistic view based on what I’m hearing this year, but it’s a vastly better show, and I do think there’s going to be movement. It’s going to be small, but it’s going to be enough to bypass Triple M.”

Creative coach Wade Kingsley also expects to see some changes in direction this year.

“I’m going to predict that we’re going to start to see the story this year unfold as the Fox cume slightly trending down even more and the KIIS cume slowly but surely increasing,” he says.