Auto, retail, travel and entertainment revenue expected to drop after US tariff changes #NABShow

Small and Medium sized radio markets have their own forum at America’s annual NAB conference.

One of the topics of high interest this year was the Economic Outlook for radio in the coming 12 months.

Justin Nielsen (pictured), the principal analyst at S&G Global Market Intelligence, told station leaders and owners, “looking at the last week with increases in tariffs we are looking at the impact on US advertising markets. We predict a 2.2% decrease in radio advertising, a decline of about $13 billion this year.”

Justin  said audience reach remains strong, even in the face of music streaming, so radio has many things to offer, but some of the main sectors where advertisers come from may be “challenged” by the new tariff rules.

“Market segments such as auto, retail, travel and entertainment categories are likely to be affected. Service businesses will not be affected, and some areas, for instance legal services, may grow.”

He predicts a decline of ad supported radio advertising of about 1% over the next ten years, but a growth in podcast ad revenue should offset the free to air radio revenue decline.

In America, national ad spend is forecast to decline by nearly 6% over the next 5 years. Radio is predicted to decline less than that average national ad spend because of its strength with audience.

In markets where the population is ageing there is predicted to be more than average revenue growth.

Of audio audiences who listen to streaming, 48% are listening to streaming music and 35% are listening to talk podcasts. Podcasts can be seen as a “brand extension” for radio, podcasts give audiences “more reasons to listen to audio,” said Nielsen.

‘Deal activity’ (buying and selling of radio stations) has declined in the past year. Of those stations that did sell, most of the value of the sale price is less based on a cashflow/profit multiple and more on audience size and potential.

Julie Koeh (also pictured above), the chair of the small market group said local raido stations are facing a lot of issues, but “if you’re here you’ve already defied the odds… you have overcome disruption from streaming, podcasting and regulatory challenges.”

Opening the Radio part of the Show, NAB president and ceo Curtis LeGeyt said: “Radio stations are investing time and effort in local communities and in the industry.” His focus was on the value returned to the community by local stations in America’s small and medium sized markets.

“AI, podcasting, connected cars, satellite radio…  we understand the intense competition you are facing as you try to grow advertising dollars and forge more connections in your community. There are many unknowns in Washington at the moment… We tell your story in Washington DC every day, your activities allow us to tell Washington how important radio still is.

“You have proven there is a market place for strong local radio stations with a commitment to their local communities. If you are committed to localism there is going to be a place for you.”

LeGeyt pointed out that local revenue is strong and consistent in small and medium markets, insulating those stations from competition for agency revenue from other media. Several stations owners I spoke to confirmed that local revenue has been strong and consistent during the past few years, while national revenue is having its ups and downs due to competition and government policy changes. Despite consistent revenue, one station owner told me that salaries are also rising and this is eating into profit margins.

Reporting: Steve & Serena Ahern and Pat Bryson at the 2025 NABShow in Las Vegas.

Pat and Steve at the Top of the World restaurant Las Vegas