ARN revenues tipped to soar
Global financial analyst, Credit Suisse, has released a report suggesting that the Australian Radio Network will soon be leading commercial radio revenue in Australia.
The report compares ARN with SCA, noting that both have similar valuations, although SCA has shed around 50% of it's market value in the last 6-months on the ASX whilst ARN's parent, APN, has been trending up.
Credit Suisse has analysed the networks following the most recent survey, obseving that ARN holds 26% of the national audience, Southern Cross Austereo 25%, Nova Entertainment fell to 22%, Fairfax Radio was steady at 17% and Macquarie (2GB/2CH) held 8%.
In the report Credit Suisse comment:
"APN's KIIS FM and WSFM have gained considerable audience share over the past twelve months, particularly in Sydney. We expect this leading audience-share position to translate into a leading revenue-share position over the next six months."
"We see the potential for a $50 million national revenue and a $20 million EBITDA shift in the 2015 financial year."
Speaking of SCA, they were less bullish;
"2DayFm and Triple M have lost audience share over the past 12 months in Sydney and while both stations appear to be recouping some lost ground over the past two surveys, it does not appear to be enough to reclaim the dominant market position. We expect some revenue headwinds as a result."